That's likely due to the model being used.
Of course, no model is going to be perfectly accurate which is why we need to look at several to get a realistic idea of how bad things might get. For context the US economy is expected to grow about 5. So to summarize, we have the current proposed or threatened tariffs which would likely slow US GDP growth by a modest amount about 0. If things continue to escalate and we get into a full blown global trade war, then the US and the world is likely facing a recession.
Rather just disappointing growth and significantly slower net job creation that will slow down how fast wages grow. First, it's important to remember that while being aware of risks is important, fixating on them or assuming a worst case scenario is not a good thing. For now, corporate earnings continue to benefit from lower taxes and a strong economy. While forward projections must always be taken with a grain of salt, thus far there is no indication that our trade conflicts have hit earnings.
Of course, given that just a few modest tariffs have actually gone into effect, they might. However, for those who are considering just selling everything and going to cash to wait for the dust to settle, I'd advise you to consider three things. First, market timing just doesn't work.
In fact, according to JPMorgan Asset Management thanks almost entirely to market timing, the average investor has managed to achieve dismal total returns over the past 20 years.
Second, consider the silver lining to a trade conflict or outright trade war. Yes the short-term effects could be terrible, including for millions of Americans who lose their jobs. However, ultimately the world isn't going to end over this. If things get bad enough, then in we get a new president, one who can just as easily end all tariffs with our trading partners overnight with the stroke of a pen.
In the meantime, certain companies might get hit harder, such as industrial firms like Boeing BA , which could lose tens of billions in foreign sales. But one investor's short-term crash in another's long-term opportunity. For value focused contrarian investors, many companies that might take a beating during a trade war could prove excellent investments once the trade war inevitably ends.
And finally, if your goal is to put your money to work in sectors least likely to be harmed by a trade war, then consider the three sectors with the least exposure to foreign revenue:. Not just are these three sectors the most immune to trade conflicts but they also happen to be some of the most undervalued. If you're looking for six undervalued REIT ideas, including some of the fastest growing ones in the country, then check out this article. As for utilities, my favorite right now is Dominion Energy D , which is one of the best high-yield, blue chip dividend growth stocks you can buy today.
The point is that investors should almost never abandon the incredible wealth compounding power of the stock market. No matter what your goals may be, there are always good undervalued places to put your money. That includes defensive stocks that will hold up relatively well high-yield, low volatility, low valuation , in case we do end up in a trade war. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that a trade war wouldn't be a potentially huge risk to the US economy, corporate earnings, and our portfolios.
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In fact, it's my single biggest short to medium-term concern. That being said things would have to continue getting a lot worse, and remain that way for much longer, before a trade war would actually occur. While the trade barriers now in effect are suboptimal and will almost certainly slow economic growth, net job creation, and corporate earnings growth, the data I've seen thus far indicates we're likely not headed for disaster.
This means that investors need to remain calm but vigilant. Each week, I closely track the state of the economy in my portfolio update series. That analysis involves six key meta-analyses studies of studies , covering dozens of leading economic indicators. In other words, I watch the economy like a hawk, for indications of where the economy, and thus corporate earnings and the stock market, is likely headed over the next few years.
- A Trade War Would Likely Sink The Economy And Crash The Stock Market, But We're Not In One Yet.
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But for now the positive fundamentals remain in effect, and worries about disastrous trade wars remain just that; fears. While being aware of risks is paramount to long-term investing success we can't forget that there has never been a time when the economy or stock market hasn't been climbing a wall of worry.
Five die in Tajik mountains helicopter crash but 13 survive
So I implore all my readers to stay calm and remain focused on executing their long-term investing plan. Of the 12 climbers to survive, two are Belarusian and Spanish and the remainder Russian.
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- All but one of 10 workers injured in Saskatchewan crash out of hospital.
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The surviving crew member was from Tajikistan. The helicopter, a Russian-built Mi-8, crash-landed on the edge of the Fortambek glacier, approximately km miles east of the Tajik capital, Dushanbe. At 7,m 24,ft , the Ismoili Somoni mountain is Tajikistan's highest and a major tourist attraction. It was known as Communism Peak when Tajikistan was part of the Soviet Union and renamed after a 10th-Century Tajik national hero in Michel Barnier says he wants checks away from the Irish border and the UK's territorial integrity respected.
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Paul Stuckless, corporate safety manager for O. Pipelines, says the workers were travelling to Kindersley, Sask. He says 16 workers in the pipe welding crew — including the driver — were on board at the time. RCMP say three people were taken to a hospital in Saskatoon, and seven others were taken to local hospitals. Police did not release the nature or extent of the injuries, but noted that the driver of the grain truck was not hurt. Ten hurt after bus and truck collide at Saskatchewan highway intersection.
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